trading
Calibration and Brier Scores: Measuring Your Prediction Market Accuracy
Discover how calibration and Brier scores assess the accuracy of prediction markets.
- trading
- kalshi
Blog
Kalshi modeling, prediction markets, earnings mention markets, market making, and data-driven trading.
54 posts
tradingThe Math of Kalshi: Modeling Binary Event Contracts with Python
Explore the math behind Kalshi's binary event contracts using Python.
- trading
- kalshi
macroMacro Modeling: How to Trade US CPI Markets Using Real-Time Data
Learn to trade US CPI markets with real-time data using macro modeling techniques.
- macro
- kalshi
- trading
tradingBuilding a Phrase Hit-Rate Database for Earnings Markets
Discover how to build a Phrase Hit-Rate Database to enhance trading strategies in earnings markets.
- trading
- kalshi
riskThe Hidden Risks: Understanding Settlement Logic and Resolution Delays
Explore the hidden complexities of settlement logic and its impact on trading resolution delays.
- risk
- kalshi
- trading
nlpEarnings Call Alpha: Using NLP to Predict Mention Markets on Kalshi
Learn how NLP techniques can help predict market outcomes from earnings calls on Kalshi.
- nlp
- kalshi
- trading
tradingOrder Book Imbalance and Edge in Kalshi Markets
Discover how order book imbalance provides traders an edge in Kalshi markets and the role Python plays in analyzing it.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingPrediction Markets as a Hedge: Strategies for Protecting Crypto Portfolios
Explore how prediction markets can hedge your crypto portfolio amidst volatility.
- trading
- kalshi
market-makingMarket Making on Kalshi: A Guide to Liquidity Provision in Prediction Markets
Discover how to provide liquidity and earn profits in Kalshi's prediction markets.
- market-making
- kalshi
- trading
tradingEvent Selection: Which Prediction Markets Are Worth Trading
Explore strategies for selecting profitable prediction markets to enhance your trading outcomes.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingAdvanced Filtering: Using Odds Converters to Find +EV Trades
Learn to leverage odds converters for identifying +EV trades in sports trading.
- trading
- kalshi
ai6-Card PLO Bots vs. Prediction Markets: Parallels in Reinforcement Learning
Explore the parallels between six-card PLO bots and prediction markets through the lens of reinforcement learning.
- ai
- kalshi
- trading
tradingBacktesting Prediction Strategies Without Look-Ahead Bias
Learn to avoid look-ahead bias in backtesting prediction strategies to ensure accurate performance metrics.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingThe Future of Event Trading: How AI Agents Are Changing Prediction Speed
Discover how AI agents are transforming event trading by enhancing prediction speed and accuracy.
- trading
- kalshi
arbitrageArbitrage Opportunities: Finding Discrepancies Between Kalshi and Polymarket
Explore how to find and capitalize on price discrepancies between Kalshi and Polymarket.
- arbitrage
- kalshi
- trading
nlpSentiment from Earnings Transcripts: Keyword Extraction and Scoring
Explore keyword extraction and sentiment scoring from earnings transcripts for actionable insights.
- nlp
- kalshi
- trading
arbitrageCross-Exchange Arbitrage: Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt
Explore cross-exchange arbitrage opportunities in prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt.
- arbitrage
- kalshi
- trading
tradingFed Funds and Rate Decision Markets: Data Sources and Models
Explore data sources and models for understanding Fed Funds and rate decision markets, enhancing trading strategies and risk management.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingKalshi API and Automation: Placing and Managing Orders Programmatically
Learn how to automate trading with the Kalshi API to streamline your operations.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingPosition Sizing for Binary Options and Prediction Markets
Explore position sizing strategies for binary options and prediction markets to enhance returns and manage risk effectively.
- trading
- kalshi
prediction-marketsWhen Do Prediction Markets Resolve? Handling Delays and Disputes
Explore the complexities of prediction market resolution, including delays and disputes.
- prediction-markets
- kalshi
- trading
riskUsing Prediction Markets to Hedge Equity and Crypto Exposure
Explore how prediction markets can effectively hedge equity and crypto exposure, improving risk management strategies.
- risk
- kalshi
- trading
tradingAmerican vs Decimal Odds: Converting and Comparing Across Platforms
Learn the differences between American and Decimal odds, and how to convert them for better sports betting decisions.
- trading
- kalshi
nlpLLMs and Event Extraction: Automating Market Discovery from News
Explore how LLMs enhance market discovery by automating event extraction from news sources.
- nlp
- kalshi
- trading
tradingLiquidity and Slippage: How Much Can You Trade Without Moving the Market
Explore how liquidity and slippage impact trading decisions and strategies in the market.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingProbability Elicitation: From Belief to a Single Number
Explore probability elicitation and transform beliefs into numerical probabilities for informed trading decisions.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingEarnings Date and Time: Why It Matters for Phrase Markets
Discover why earnings dates are crucial for traders in phrase markets and how to incorporate them into effective strategies.
- trading
- kalshi
prediction-marketsRegulation and Compliance in US Prediction Markets
Explore the regulatory landscape and compliance challenges of prediction markets in the US.
- prediction-markets
- kalshi
- trading
tradingKelly Criterion and Fractional Kelly in Prediction Market Betting
Explore the Kelly Criterion and Fractional Kelly in prediction markets to maximize your betting strategy effectively.
- trading
- kalshi
macroReal-Time Data Feeds for Macro Event Trading
Explore how real-time data feeds enhance decision-making in macro event trading.
- macro
- kalshi
- trading
nlpNLP Pipelines for Earnings Calls: ASR, Diarization, and Entity Recognition
Explore NLP techniques like ASR, diarization, and entity recognition for enhancing insights from earnings calls.
- nlp
- kalshi
- trading
market-makingMarket Making 101: Bid-Ask Spreads and Inventory Risk
Explore the essentials of market making, focusing on bid-ask spreads and inventory risk with practical examples.
- market-making
- kalshi
- trading
riskCorrelation Between Related Markets: Diversification and Hedging
Explore market correlation and its impact on diversification and hedging strategies.
- risk
- kalshi
- trading
tradingHistorical Resolution Data: Where to Get It and How to Use It
Discover how historical resolution data can enhance your trading strategies and performance evaluation.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingTax Treatment of Prediction Market Gains and Losses
Explore the tax implications of gains and losses in prediction markets.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingScaling a Quant Strategy from Paper to Live on Kalshi
Learn how to scale your quant trading strategy on Kalshi.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingNews and Social Signal: Incorporating Headlines into Probability Estimates
Explore how integrating news and social signals into trading strategies can improve decision-making and predictive accuracy.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingBinary Options vs Multi-Outcome Markets: When to Use Which
Explore the differences between binary options and multi-outcome markets to enhance your trading strategies.
- trading
- kalshi
nlpFeature Engineering for Earnings Phrase Prediction
Discover techniques for feature engineering in earnings phrase prediction to enhance trading strategies.
- nlp
- kalshi
- trading
prediction-marketsSlippage and Fees: True Cost of Execution on Prediction Markets
Explore the true cost of execution in prediction markets, focusing on slippage and fees.
- prediction-markets
- kalshi
- trading
tradingConditional Probability and Dependent Markets
Explore conditional probability's role in financial markets and its importance for traders and analysts in analyzing dependent markets.
- trading
- kalshi
riskEvent Contracts in Portfolio Theory: Efficient Frontiers
Explore the role of event contracts in portfolio theory and their impact on modeling risk and return.
- risk
- kalshi
- trading
prediction-marketsScraping and Parsing Kalshi Market Pages for Research
Explore scraping Kalshi market pages for insights into market sentiment and pricing.
- prediction-markets
- kalshi
- trading
prediction-marketsWhy Prediction Markets Beat Polls: Information Aggregation in Practice
Explore how prediction markets aggregate information to outperform traditional polls in forecasting events.
- prediction-markets
- kalshi
- trading
tradingEarnings Surprises and Phrase Markets: Pre- and Post-Announcement
Explore how earnings surprises affect stock prices pre- and post-announcement.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingBuilding a Simple +EV Scanner for Kalshi in Python
Learn to build a simple +EV scanner for Kalshi using Python to identify profitable trading opportunities.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingRoughly Right vs Precisely Wrong: Calibration Over Accuracy
Explore the principle of being 'roughly right' over 'precisely wrong' in quant trading and financial modeling.
- trading
- kalshi
prediction-marketsReputation and Resolution: How Kalshi Handles Ambiguous Outcomes
Discover how Kalshi ensures trust in prediction markets through its handling of ambiguous outcomes.
- prediction-markets
- kalshi
- trading
tradingTime Decay and Event Horizon in Short-Dated Markets
Explore time decay and event horizon in short-dated markets, essential for effective trading strategies.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingFrom Research to Production: Deploying a Prediction Model
Learn how to efficiently deploy prediction models in quantitative trading.
- trading
- kalshi
prediction-marketsCrowdsourced Wisdom: When Do Prediction Markets Add Value
Explore how prediction markets leverage collective wisdom to forecast outcomes and their value in various fields.
- prediction-markets
- kalshi
- trading
nlpSector-Specific Phrase Patterns: Tech vs Healthcare Earnings
Explore phrase patterns in earnings calls between Tech and Healthcare sectors for predictive trading strategies.
- nlp
- kalshi
- trading
tradingBankroll Management and Drawdowns in Event Trading
Learn effective bankroll management strategies to minimize drawdowns in event trading.
- trading
- kalshi
tradingAPIs and Webhooks: Staying in Sync with Market and Position Data
Explore how APIs and webhooks enhance trading workflows with real-time market and position data.
- trading
- kalshi